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Developers, so far, have proposed to build about 14,000 new homes in the county -- where there were only 7,043 homes in 2000 -- over the next 25 years. If things grow as projected, developers say Baker County is primed to rival its metropolitan neighbor: Duval County.
"Baker County will grow to be at least like Duval," said Amram Adar, president of Adar Corp. in Miami. Adar has proposed to develop an 11,000-unit master-planned community northwest of the county's two incorporated municipalities, Macclenny and Glen St. Mary.
There are roughly 24,000 people living in Baker County today; an additional 11,000 homes would more than double the population to about 55,000 people. That doesn't include the piles of proposals for smaller residential subdivisions already coming in.
County planners are scrambling to harness and direct growth before it explodes, but there are questions to answer: Who will pave hundreds of miles of dirt road, or extend water and sewer service outside of Macclenny? Where will all these people work? And who will make sure Macclenny Avenue won't become another Blanding Boulevard?
The Northeast Florida Regional Council, which is helping Baker County officials prepare for large-scale developments like the Adar proposal, is planning for more than 15,000 homes, or about 42,900 people, to land in Baker County.
Macclenny, the county seat, expects to consider about 1,000 new homes within its city limits in the next three years. The county, which also reviews developments in Glen St. Mary, is looking at proposals to build more than 2,000 homes, not including Adar's 11,000-unit proposal, tentatively called The Villages of Glen St. Mary.
Adar, in January, presented county officials with a conceptual plan for the 3,650-acre mega-neighborhood. The plan, which is expected to apply to the state as a development of regional impact, or DRI, included space for single-family homes, condominiums, town homes, apartments, golf courses, retail and entertainment areas, fire houses, hospitals and schools.
According to the regional council, there are at least five other groups looking at applying for DRIs. Council staff did not identify who those groups were, but said that Adar was the only one who formally presented a plan of any sort. Across the region, counties have used the DRI process to help plan for large developments: Nocatee, Palencia and RiverTown in St. Johns County and OakLeaf Plantation and Eagle Harbor in Clay County were all DRIs.
Amanda Smith, a senior planner with the regional council, said there is a race for developers to make their mark in the county.
"They've basically got an oyster open to them," Smith said.
The first to build a large community will set the pace, and likely face fewer restrictions during the planning process, Smith said.
Until this year, no inquiries about DRIs had come in for Baker County, said Ed Lehman, director of planning and development of the regional council. He said International Paper's sale of 47,000 acres (or about a fourth of the county's land mass) in the heart of the county changed all that. Halfway between interstates 95 and 75, with easy access to Interstate 10, Baker County is prime real estate.
"They realize they're on the cusp of development," Lehman said. "They don't try to deny it .
County officials like planning director Cathy Rhoden -- who is the county's entire planning department -- are ramping up for the boom.
"It's coming," Rhoden said. "We're headed for development and there's no way around it. We've been a sleeping giant for a long time."
For now, only one person reviews building plans -- building official Robert Hathcox -- and there is no system to file plans that come in. Rhoden has asked for more staff; commissioners have approved one additional person.
County commissioners and school officials have discussed collecting impact fees on new development. Those are fees that developers pay -- and usually pass on to home buyers -- to help shoulder the cost of paving roads, building schools and staffing law enforcement crews to support growth. Baker County does not collect impact fees, although many counties in the state -- including Clay, Flagler, Nassau and St. Johns counties -- do.
County manager Jason Griffis said his employees are exploring other avenues that would require developers to help bear the cost, such as agreements with individual developers or land-use changes across the board.
"We have to be careful that the decisions we make today don't come back to bite us tomorrow," Griffis said.
The county also is planning to go into the utility business and offer water and sewer service outside of Macclenny. In fact, the state would not allow large developments like DRIs without available water and sewer, Griffis said.
Adar said he is working with county planners to attract more industry and business to the area so that new residents have places to work within the county. Part of his plan is to develop a light industrial park within The Villages of Glen St. Mary.
Although the county has two industrial parks, which employed almost 1,000 and generated nearly $930,000 in property taxes in 2004, more than half of the county's workforce commute to other counties to work, according to the chamber of commerce. If current trends continue, Baker County would essentially become a bedroom community to Jacksonville, planning director Rhoden said. Discussions between the county and the regional council also are focused on creating jobs within Baker County to keep employees there. DRIs, which reserve space for business and industrial uses, are a good way to plan for that, Smith said.
Karen Rhoden, who leaves her Macclenny home at about 6 a.m. to get to work well before 7 a.m. on the Westside of Jacksonville, said she left Ortega in May for a more pleasant, more rural atmosphere.
"[In Jacksonville], there was nowhere you could just ride. Here, you can take a ride down the road and you're in the country," she said.
The Baker County native knows growth is coming -- three new subdivisions are being built around her neighborhood, and the golf course across the street is expected to be developed into another subdivision. She's worried that, once open, a proposed Wal-Mart Supercenter at the intersection of State Road 228 and Interstate 10 will clog traffic.
"It's a little unnerving not knowing what to expect as opposed to [moving] into a totally settled environment," she said. "A lot of people are waiting and wondering to see what direction it will take."
But Baker County residents aren't the only ones watching. Bob Rhodes, a Jacksonville attorney who specializes in growth management issues, said that Northeast Florida is interdependent, and developments in one county mean much to others.
"We're one region," Rhodes said. "When we talk about Baker County, we're not just talking about Baker County. We're talking about Duval County. We're talking about Nassau County, and St. Johns County."
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